Warning: trigger_error() [function.trigger-error]: It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /home/firedup/public_html/includes/database.mysql.inc on line 135

Warning: Table './firedup_firedup/cache_page' is marked as crashed and should be repaired query: SELECT data, created, headers, expire, serialized FROM cache_page WHERE cid = 'http://firedupmissouri.com/taxonomy/term/1159/0/feed' in /home/firedup/public_html/includes/database.mysql.inc on line 135

Warning: header() [function.header]: It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /home/firedup/public_html/includes/bootstrap.inc on line 729

Warning: Cannot modify header information - headers already sent by (output started at /home/firedup/public_html/includes/database.mysql.inc:135) in /home/firedup/public_html/includes/bootstrap.inc on line 729

Warning: header() [function.header]: It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /home/firedup/public_html/includes/bootstrap.inc on line 730

Warning: Cannot modify header information - headers already sent by (output started at /home/firedup/public_html/includes/database.mysql.inc:135) in /home/firedup/public_html/includes/bootstrap.inc on line 730

Warning: header() [function.header]: It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /home/firedup/public_html/includes/bootstrap.inc on line 731

Warning: Cannot modify header information - headers already sent by (output started at /home/firedup/public_html/includes/database.mysql.inc:135) in /home/firedup/public_html/includes/bootstrap.inc on line 731

Warning: header() [function.header]: It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /home/firedup/public_html/includes/bootstrap.inc on line 732

Warning: Cannot modify header information - headers already sent by (output started at /home/firedup/public_html/includes/database.mysql.inc:135) in /home/firedup/public_html/includes/bootstrap.inc on line 732
Fired Up! Missouri - Jerry Beck http://firedupmissouri.com/taxonomy/term/1159/0 en Quote of the Day http://firedupmissouri.com/content/quote-day-53 <p><strong>&quot;That complete Website...probably the best Website on the Internet.&quot;</strong></p> <p></p><p class="rteindent1"><a target="_blank" href="http://monewshorizonblog.org/2010/10/cyber-sabotage-gives-new-twist-to-election-vandalism/"><strong>Jerry Beck</strong></a>, Constitution Party candidate for US Senate, describing his recently hacked campaign website</p> 2010 Senate Race Jerry Beck Fri, 29 Oct 2010 13:51:28 +0000 .Sean 12910 at http://firedupmissouri.com Hotline: Senate Race "Is Closer Than Ever" http://firedupmissouri.com/content/hotline-senate-race-closer-ever <p><a href="http://hotlineoncall.nationaljournal.com/archives/2010/09/races_to_know_m.php" target="_blank">The Cook Political Report's Jennifer Duffy writes about last weeks' polls in the Missouri Senate race for The Hotline today:</a> </p> <blockquote><p>Democrats released a poll last week that indicates that this race is closer than ever. A Garin-Hart-Yang Research poll (D) of 701 likely voters conducted Sept. 20-22 showed GOP Rep. <b>Roy Blunt</b> at 41%, followed by Democratic Secretary of State <b>Robin Carnahan</b> at 40%, Constitution Party candidate <b>Jerry Beck</b> at 3%, and Libertarian candidate <b>Jonathan Dine</b> at 2%. </p><p>Presumably the 5% of the vote going to the Constitution and Libertarian nominees would otherwise go to Blunt. But, can Beck and Dine expect these percentages on Election Day? Recent history says no. In the '04 Senate and gubernatorial races, the Libertarian and Constitution candidates combined for 1.1% and 1.3%, respectively. In the '06 Senate contest, the Libertarian candidate took 2.2%, and in the '08 governor's race, the Libertarian and Constitution nominees combined for 2.1%. In other words, the odds are better than not that Beck and Dine won't get a total of more than 3%, which means that Blunt may be a bit further ahead than these polls suggest. More worrisome for Democrats is that Carnahan hasn't been ahead in any survey since early January. </p> </blockquote> 2010 Senate Race Jerry Beck Jonathan Dine Polls Robin Carnahan Roy Blunt Wed, 29 Sep 2010 17:00:14 +0000 .Sean 12667 at http://firedupmissouri.com Senate Race Tightens In Latest Rasmussen Poll, Still Inflates *Real* Numbers http://firedupmissouri.com/content/senate-race-tightens-latest-rasmussen-poll-still-conflicts-real-gop-numbers <p>The <a href="http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/missouri/election_2010_missouri_senate" target="_blank">latest poll from Rasmussen Reports</a>, conducted on Tuesday, finds that Roy Blunt's <a href="http://www.firedupmissouri.com/content/rasmussen-shows-leads-far-beyond-what-gopers-really-believe-lets-jump-more-accurate-democrat" target="_blank">already-inflated lead</a> has shrunk from 10 points to 8 points.&nbsp; </p> <blockquote><p>The latest Rasmussen Reports statewide telephone survey of Likely Voters shows Blunt picking up 52% support, while Carnahan, Missouri’s secretary of state, gets 44% of the vote. Two percent (2%) prefer some other candidate, and three percent (3%) are undecided. </p><p><a href="http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/missouri/missouri_senate_blunt_r_53_carnahan_d_43">Two weeks ago</a>, Blunt led Carnahan by a 53% to 43% margin when leaners were included in the totals. Leaners are those who initially indicate no preference for either of the candidates but answer a follow-up question and say they are leaning towards a particular candidate. Rasmussen Reports now considers results with leaners the primary indicator of the race. </p> </blockquote> <p>Initial thoughts: <ol> <li>Rasmussen does ask respondents about all four names that will appear on the November ballot.&nbsp; <a href="http://www.firedupmissouri.com/content/rasmussen-shows-leads-far-beyond-what-gopers-really-believe-lets-jump-more-accurate-democrat" target="_blank">Recent public surveys</a> from Public Policy Polling and Global Strategy Group show that Libertarian Party candidate Jonathan Dine and Constitution Party candidate Jerry Beck are pulling 8% of the total vote.&nbsp; Rasmussen is a Republican polling outfit, and has made a point to exclude the two more conservative candidates from their questionaires.</li> <li><a href="http://www.firedupmissouri.com/content/rasmussen-shows-leads-far-beyond-what-gopers-really-believe-lets-jump-more-accurate-democrat" target="_blank">Politico's Dave Catanese reported on Tuesday that trusted GOP sources do not believe the numbers Rasmussen has been releasing to shape the public narrative</a>.&nbsp; Catanese insisted earlier this week that Blunt's lead had been closer to 5 or 6 percentage points, and was also skeptical that there was any actual movement in the race.&nbsp; Since said Trusted Anonymous GOP sources have reported that 5 or 6 point lead, Democratic and Republican polls have both shown that the race is tightening.</li> <li>Note Rasmussen's headline: "Blunt (R) Remains Ahead of Carnahan (D)".&nbsp; Aware that voters are learning about Blunt's record, the Republican-friendly firm is deemphasizing the movement in their own numbers. </li> </ol> <!--break--><!--break--></p> 2010 Senate Race Jerry Beck Jonathan Dine Polls Robin Carnahan Roy Blunt Thu, 23 Sep 2010 14:44:54 +0000 .Sean 12614 at http://firedupmissouri.com Rasmussen Gives Numbers Far Beyond What GOPers *Really* Believe, But Let's Jump On A More Accurate Democratic Poll http://firedupmissouri.com/content/rasmussen-shows-leads-far-beyond-what-gopers-really-believe-lets-jump-more-accurate-democrat <p>There was a fascinating flurry of Twitter activity last night in response to a question from Politico's <a href="http://twitter.com/davecatanese" target="_blank">Dave Catanese</a> that I believe reveals some lousy journalism, and I'll share some thoughts about that below.&nbsp; But there was one fact revealed in the online conversation that should not be lost.&nbsp; <a href="http://twitter.com/davecatanese/status/25078554414" target="_blank">Posted last night at 10:48 pm</a>:</p> <blockquote><p>GOPers I trust in the state believe @RoyBlunt has a 5-6 pt lead. So for Dems to put out a poll pushing a tie should be met with skepticism.</p> </blockquote> <p>To me, the fact that anonymous Republicans say the 'real' lead is 5-6 points -- while GSG's survey shows 4 points -- suggests the GSG numbers are on target.&nbsp;</p> <p>But the bigger question here, in my mind, is why journalists like Catanese are not far more critical of <a href="http://www.firedupmissouri.com/content/rasmussen-mo-senate-race-no-change-over-past-two-weeks" target="_blank">Republican-friendly Rasmussen surveys</a> that show leads for Blunt that are <em>twice</em> what 'trusted' GOP sources really believe.&nbsp; Rasmussen's questionnaires do not offer respondents all four names that will be on the November ballot, which is not insignificant.&nbsp; In both the Global Strategy Group poll released yesterday, and in <a href="http://www.firedupmissouri.com/content/ppp-poll-blunt-45-carnahan-38-beck-5-dine-3" target="_blank">the Public Policy Polling survey</a> conducted in August, <strong>Jerry Beck </strong>and <strong>Jonathan Dine </strong>are supported by a combined 8 percent of respondents. Regardless, we've been told what trusted Republicans<em> really </em>think, and it's not close to what Rasmussen is pumping out to the public.&nbsp; <strong>Where are all of the tweets and guffaws when a GOP outfit releases numbers that dramatically overstate Blunt's chances, <em>according to Republicans</em>?&nbsp; </strong></p> <p>Something doesn't &quot;smell right.&quot;&nbsp;</p> <!--break--><!--break--><p>Back to the larger conversation on Twitter last night...</p> <p>Catanese believes that the new poll from the Missouri Democratic Pary and the respected Global Strategy Group doesn't &quot;smell right.&quot; His skepticism comes from anonymous GOP sources who tell him their internal polling shows Roy Blunt leading Robin Carnahan by 5-6 points.&nbsp; The GSG poll shows a lead of 4 points -- for a mind-blowing one or two point difference -- but Catanese never actually reported what the poll said.&nbsp; As of 9:30am CDT, he still hasn't. In fact, if you were not on the MDP's email distribution list, or hadn't read <a href="http://www.firedupmissouri.com/content/global-strategy-group-poll-blunt-43-carnahan-39-beck-4-dine-4" target="_blank">the Fired Up! post</a> summarizing said release, you probably wouldn't have known what poll numbers he was poo-pooing.&nbsp;</p> <p>Instead, Catanese lead with his skepticism, and then quickly re-tweeted a message from a follower who confirmed his opinion.&nbsp;&nbsp; His tweets, in chronological order:</p> <ul> <li>Mo Tweeps, help me out, this Dem poll by Global Strategy Group showing @RobinCarnahan &amp; @RoyBlunt tied smell right to you? #MOSEN</li> <li>RT @Mr_Tactful77: @davecatanese No, it doesn't smell right. Roy +5 as best I can tell, and I'm for Robin.</li> <li>GOPers I trust in the state believe @RoyBlunt has a 5-6 pt lead. So for Dems to put out a poll pushing a tie should be met with skepticism.</li> <li>@Taniel Also to be fair, in their release #MODems stressed &quot;a tie&quot; #MOSEN #itainttied</li> </ul> <p>Again, all of this is because the GSG poll showed a 4-point lead for Blunt -- a lead which is inside the survey's 4-point margin of error -- and Catanese really believes it's more like a 5-point lead.&nbsp;&nbsp; (Because anonymous GOP&nbsp;sources can be trusted at face value, and Democratic sources have to prove themselves.)</p> <p>Catanese's opinion about the Global Strategy Group poll is clear, and he happily shares that opinion without reporting what the poll revealed, or linking to <a href="http://missouridems.org/headline.php?id=190" target="_blank">the MDP press release</a> that he criticized. But he doesn't challenge the methodology of the survey and doesn't report the actual numbers.</p> <p>Finally, I think it's instructive to compare the MDP/GSG numbers to the Kos/PPP survey from mid-August.&nbsp; As you may recall, the Public Policy Polling survey found the following:</p> <ul> <li>Roy Blunt (R) 45</li> <li>Robin Carnahan (D) 38</li> <li>Jerry Beck (C) 5</li> <li>Jonathan Dine (L) 3</li> </ul> <p>Since that time, voters have seem more than a few TV commercials highlighting Roy Blunt's horrifying record in Washington, and many of them have seen mail pieces focusing on the same.&nbsp; One month later, a poll is conducted by a different firm, and asks a similar horserace question.&nbsp;&nbsp; Beck and Dine still combine for 8 points, Carnahan us now supported by 39% of respondents (+1), and Blunt is supported by 43% (-2).&nbsp;&nbsp; Why would it be shocking to anyone that a lead would narrow by 3 points over a one-month span in the middle of an all-out paid media campaign?&nbsp;</p> <p>I guess I'll just wait for tweets summarizing the opinions of anonymous GOPers to find out what's really happening in the race.&nbsp;</p> Jerry Beck Jonathan Dine Polls Robin Carnahan Roy Blunt The Liberal Media Tue, 21 Sep 2010 14:47:38 +0000 .Sean 12593 at http://firedupmissouri.com Global Strategy Group Poll: Blunt 43%, Carnahan 39%, Beck 4%, Dine 4% http://firedupmissouri.com/content/global-strategy-group-poll-blunt-43-carnahan-39-beck-4-dine-4 <p>A new poll commissioned and released this afternoon by the Missouri Democratic Party and conducted by the respected <a href="http://www.globalstrategygroup.com/" target="_blank">Global Strategy Group</a> indicates that the increased attention on Roy Blunt's record of corruption and bad votes in Washington is having an effect. </p> <p>Combining solid supporters with leaners, the survey shows that 43% of respondents support <strong>Roy Blunt</strong>, 39% support <strong>Robin Carnahan</strong>, 4% support <strong>Jerry Beck</strong> and 4% support <strong>Jonathan Dine</strong>.<br /><img class="noside" src="http://farm5.static.flickr.com/4154/5010100212_d18ff287c1.jpg" /><br />The poll was conducted September 14-18. 601 interviews, margin of error +/- 4.0%. </p> <p>The MDP's full release about the poll is below the break. </p> <!--break--><!--break--><blockquote> <p><b>Poll for Missouri Democratic Party Shows Robin Carnahan Closing the Gap in U.S. Senate Race </b> </p><p>Jefferson City, Mo. -- A recent Missouri statewide poll that includes the US Senate race between Robin Carnahan, Roy Blunt, Jonathan Dine and Jerry Beck conducted by Global Strategy Group (Sept. 14-18) and released by the Missouri Democratic Party shows the margin between Roy Blunt and Robin Carnahan tightening, with each receiving 37 percent of the vote. The race remains within the margin of error when counting voters who are still undecided but leaning towards a candidate. </p> <p>"This poll shows that the more Missourians learn about Congressman Blunt's ties to corruption and the 14 years he has spent as a Washington Insider, the less likely they are to vote for him," said Missouri Democratic Party Communications Director Ryan Hobart. "After 14 years of not being held accountable, Missourians are starting to realize Congressman Blunt represents the very worst of Washington when it comes to waste, corruption and sticking it to the middle class." </p> <p>Congressman Blunt began airing television ads six weeks before the Robin Carnahan campaign was on television. In addition, his corporate special interest allies including the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and Karl Rove’s American Crossroads have spent more than $2 million attacking Robin Carnahan. This poll shows Robin Carnahan gaining ground and closing the gap once held by Congressman Blunt. </p> <p>Global Strategy Group conducted this poll of 601 likely voters statewide for the Missouri Democratic Party September 14-18. The margin of error for the poll is +/- 4%. </p> <p>Here is the polling question and the corresponding percentages:</p> <p>If the election for United States Senator were today and the candidates were Robin Carnahan, the Democrat, Roy Blunt, the Republican, Jerry Beck, the Constitution Party candidate and Jonathan Dine, the Libertarian, for whom would you vote? [IF UNDECIDED] If you had to decide, which candidate would you lean towards supporting?</p> <p>Robin Carnahan .................................................................37%<br />Lean Robin Carnahan ..........................................................2%<br />Roy Blunt ........................................................................37%<br />Lean Roy Blunt ................................................................ 6%<br />Jerry Beck .........................................................................3%<br />Lean Jerry Beck ..................................................................*<br />Jonathan Dine ....................................................................3%<br />Lean Jonathan Dine .............................................................*<br />(Undecided/Refused)....................................................11%</p> </blockquote> <p> <a title="View MDP/Global Strategy Group Toplines on Scribd" href="http://www.scribd.com/doc/37817405/MDP-Global-Strategy-Group-Toplines" style="margin: 12px auto 6px auto; font-family: Helvetica,Arial,Sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; font-size: 14px; line-height: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; -x-system-font: none; display: block; text-decoration: underline;">MDP/Global Strategy Group Toplines</a> </p> <object id="doc_981220993212111" name="doc_981220993212111" height="600" width="100%" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" data="http://d1.scribdassets.com/ScribdViewer.swf" style="outline:none;" > <param name="movie" value="http://d1.scribdassets.com/ScribdViewer.swf" /> <param name="wmode" value="opaque" /> <param name="bgcolor" value="#ffffff" /> <param name="allowFullScreen" value="true" /> <param name="allowScriptAccess" value="always" /> <param name="FlashVars" value="document_id=37817405&amp;access_key=key-yyaqaq01k3loe8qz1i6&amp;page=1&amp;viewMode=list" /> <embed id="doc_981220993212111" name="doc_981220993212111" src="http://d1.scribdassets.com/ScribdViewer.swf?document_id=37817405&amp;access_key=key-yyaqaq01k3loe8qz1i6&amp;page=1&amp;viewMode=list" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" height="600" width="100%" wmode="opaque" bgcolor="#ffffff"></embed> </object> 2010 Senate Race Jerry Beck Jonathan Dine Polls Roy Blunt Mon, 20 Sep 2010 23:15:41 +0000 .Sean 12588 at http://firedupmissouri.com PPP Poll: Blunt 45%, Carnahan 38%, Beck 5%, Dine 3% http://firedupmissouri.com/content/ppp-poll-blunt-45-carnahan-38-beck-5-dine-3 <p><img style="padding-bottom: 8px; padding-left: 8px; padding-right: 8px; padding-top: 8px" class="rightside" src="http://farm3.static.flickr.com/2520/4118693192_f0e08b28c5_m.jpg" /> DailyKos has posted the results of a <a href="http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2010/8/17/893720/-MO-Sen:-Dems-suffering-from-intensity-gap" target="_blank">new Public Policy Polling survey</a> of likely voters conducted last Friday and Saturday: </p> <blockquote><p><strong>Roy Blunt</strong> (R) 45<br /><strong>Robin Carnahan</strong> (D) 38<br /><strong>Jerry Beck</strong> (C) 5<br /><strong>Jonathan Dine</strong> (L) 3 </p><p><em>Favorable/Unfavorable/Not sure</em> </p><p><strong>Blunt</strong> 41/41/17<br /><strong>Carnahan</strong> 41/50/9</p> </blockquote> <p><a href="http://www.dailykos.com/images/user/3/MissouriResults.pdf" target="_blank">Toplines and crosstabs here</a>.&nbsp; MoE 3.73%. </p> 2010 Senate Race Jerry Beck Jonathan Dine Polls Roy Blunt Tue, 17 Aug 2010 16:00:43 +0000 .Sean 12349 at http://firedupmissouri.com