Robin Carnahan

Southeast Missourian columnist Michael Jensen is misinformed.

Sensing the growing public opposition to runaway pork, both leading U.S. Senate candidates in Missouri -- Roy Blunt and Robin Carnahan -- this week pledged to curtail earmarks if elected. If that comes to pass, they would join Sen. Claire McCaskill, who swore off pork projects when she was elected...

Carnahan says she would oppose any earmarks period. Blunt goes beyond that and pledges to end the practice of earmarks and to introduce legislation to reduce the federal budget by $30 billion -- the amount spent on earmarks last year.

Blunt has not "pledged to end the practice if elected."  He only supports a 1-year ban --  one that would extend just beyond the November 2010 elections. 

Missourinet:

The YouGovPolimetrix survey has Carnahan with a 43 to 39 percentage point lead over Blunt among decided voters ... and shows Carnahan with a 40 to 34 percentage point lead over State Senator Chuck Purgason, who is also in the contest for the GOP nomination.

FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver:

3. Missouri (R-Open) -- Robin Carnahan's polling has been very stable, continuing to show her with a very slight lead. That's probably because her opponent, Roy Blunt, is a rather vocal member of the sitting Republican Congress, which is losing popularity just as quickly as the Democrats in Congress are. He's the wrong candidate for this type of cycle.

For those of you who've taken a little break from political news, be sure to check out three year-end analysis pieces published this weekend:

• Nixon brought new tone to Missouri Capitol, by David Lieb of the Associated Press, and
• Tempo picks up in the political tango over Senate seat from Missouri, by Steve Kraske and Dave Helling of the Kansas City Star
• Push for Missouri ethics bill gets tailwind, by Tony Messenger of the Post-Dispatch

A new Rasmussen telephone survey of 500 likely voters shows some slippage in Roy Blunt's performance against Robin Carnahan in a hypothetical general election contest, though the difference between the candidates is still within the margin of error (+/- 4.5%).

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state finds that Carnahan attracts 46% of the vote while Blunt earns 44%. In September, both candidates were at 46%. Four percent (4%) prefer some other candidate, and six percent (6%) are undecided.

Public Policy Polling released their updated Senate rankings today with what they see as the " the Senate seats most likely to change hands next year."  It's a mixed bag for Democrats across the country, but here's what analyst Tom Jensen said about Missouri:

This is probably the best hope for a Democratic pickup next year because Robin Carnahan is considerably more popular at this point than Roy Blunt is. Still, she has to contend with the unpopularity of the President and her party in the state, and that's why she's only up by a point right now. If this was November 2007 I imagine her lead over Blunt would be double digits.

On Roy Blunt's campaign website, his health care issues page includes the following line:

We must complete the work of ending denial of coverage due to a pre-existing condition. 

This obviously sounds great, but when Blunt and the House GOP put together their health care plan this year, they refused prevent insurance providers from barring clients based on pre-existing conditions. 

The Blunt campaign doesn't seem to be bothered at all by hypocritical elements on their website.  They still have a countdown clock of days Robin Carnahan has allegedly 'hid' from a head-to-head issues forum with Blunt, even though Blunt has steadfastly refused similar invitations from primary opponent Chuck Purgason and a recent poll showed that 47% of GOP voters are still undecided or supporting Purgason in their primary.

The editorial board at the Springfield News-Leader teased a new feature this morning, in which they hope to clear up some of the confusion about Congressional health care reform proposals.  It certainly sounds like a good idea – Sens. Bond and McCaskill are both expected to participate – and I look forward to reading the different perspectives in their "Voices" section. 

However, the response from Rep. Blunt's office raises some questions. 

Public Policy Polling has released topline data from their recent statewide poll of 763 Missouri voters.  Since their previous poll in January, the prospective matchup between Robin Carnahan and Roy Blunt remains stable.  However, the survey does indicant real unease about Blunt's record in Washington.

When PPP polled the Missouri Senate race in January Robin Carnahan led by one point. Fast forward ten months and nothing has changed. Carnahan leads Roy Blunt 43-42.

It's a good sign for Carnahan that her status hasn't worsened as things have gone sour in general for the Democratic Party over the course of 2009. That's a product of Carnahan and Blunt being more well known than your typical open seat candidates, particularly because of their family names, and probably also due to Blunt's being symbolic of a Congress that voters don't care for. You're definitely better off being a Jefferson City politician in 2010 than a Washington one.

Tom Jensen of Public Policy Polling teases a bit more today about the fresh Missouri Senate poll they'll release tomorrow. Roy Blunt's head-to-head numbers against Chuck Purgason were certainly surprising, but Blunt's possible race against Robin Carnahan is still tight, as expected.

The favoraibilty numbers released today are also interesting:

44% of independents in the state have an unfavorable opinion of Roy Blunt to just 23% viewing him favorably. Robin Carnahan also has poor, but somewhat better, numbers with that group- 40% have an unfavorable opinion of her with 33% holding a positive take.

As the post notes, these numbers don't translate directly to how voters plan to cast their ballots, and a potential Blunt v. Carnahan race will most certainly be close.

That said, it will be fascinating to see how Team Blunt tries to spin away the weak support with GOP primary voters and very negative feelings among independents.

A brand new Top 10 list from Politico -- their "10 best pickup opportunities among next year’s Senate contests."

The race to succeed retiring GOP Sen. Kit Bond offers Democrats one of their strongest pickup targets, as Missouri Secretary of State Robin Carnahan is almost certainly the strongest Democratic recruit of the cycle. Carnahan — the daughter of former Gov. Mel Carnahan and former Sen. Jean Carnahan — has already taken in more than $3 million for the contest. Rep. Roy Blunt, a former House GOP whip, avoided a tough primary against former state Treasurer Sarah Steelman, but he still faces an uphill general election battle.

Sent around this morning in an email to prospective volunteers -- one of the most inspired political emails I've seen in a while.

The Beacon's Jo Mannies has a new story about a Chuck Purgason campaign stop in St. Louis County last night, at which Purgason argued that his true fiscal conservative credentials make him the better candidate to emerge from the GOP primary. Mannies:

Sporting his trademark bolo tie, silk vest and a flip chart, Purgason mesmerized about 50 fellow conservatives who showed up at the Midwest Music Conservatory in Clarkson Valley. It was among the first campaign forays to this side of the state by the GOP state senator from Caulfield, Mo. (He noted later that he was in town two weeks ago for some radio appearances.)

His message was dire. Purgason declared that -- nationally -- the Republican Party is "the last hope'' to turn around the nation's troubled economy and halt the federal government's rising debt.

But he also asserted that some Republicans in Congress have contributed to the country's current money problems -- notably his unnamed primary opponent, U.S. Rep. Roy Blunt, R-Mo.

 "My opponent was in (House) leadership when this occurred,'' Purgason said.

From a new Roy Blunt fundraising email:

Robin Carnahan is not running a grassroots campaign like ours, but she is spending her time raising money. Last week, Vice President Joe Biden came to Missouri for a big fundraiser for Robin Carnahan where ticket prices were as high as $14,800.

Um, what about the fact that no federal candidate in the country has received more lobbyist money that Blunt, the fact that he's had more insurance industry-fundraisers than any Member of Congress this year, or that $100,400-per-couple ticket price for a private reception with Newt Gingrich last month?

No other candidate in the race is running a "grassroots campaign" quite like that, no.